Report identifies the ‘most vulnerable’ to climate-related disasters

Extreme weather events leave populations with not enough food both in the short- and the long-term, says a new report by the Environmental Change Institute that examines the impacts of climate-related diasters on food security. The authors conclude that better governance could have lessened the impact on the poorest and most vulnerable, and affected populations have been let down by the authorities in past disasters.

The report, commissioned by the charity Oxfam, tracks the effects on four countries: Russia which experienced a heatwave in 2010; flood-hit Pakistan the same year; East Africa during the drought of 2010-2011; and the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. The researchers conclude that the authorities in each of the countries studied were unprepared for extreme weather events, and citizens suffered even more than they needed to.

The report, ‘A Sign of Things to Come?’, says that during the floods in Pakistan ‘coercive landlords’ took advantage of smallholders and people affected by the floods. Overall, the flooding is estimated to have led to an 80% rise in wheat and rice prices in 2010.

The drought-affected people of East Africa did not receive international or domestic aid for six months, partly due to the risks posed by armed groups. Food prices reached record levels in several markets that included the cost of wheat in Ethiopia, maize in Kenya and red sorghum grain in Somalia, says the report. It notes that children under five accounted for over half of all deaths in Somalia.

On a global level, the report warns that climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of heatwaves and floods. It says although there is no scientific evidence to show a specific weather event would not have happened without climate change, scientists can estimate whether it increases the risk of an event. It finds that the Russian heat wave and the East African drought were more likely because of climate change, but there is not yet the evidence to say that climate change played a part in the floods in Pakistan or Typhoon Haiyan.

One of the lead authors Dr John Ingram said: “Weather has always affected food security, particularly for many of the world’s poorest people. Perhaps we think of farmers or fishermen first, but extreme weather will affect many more people in other ways too. While direct measures such as emergency preparedness and the strengthening of response-related institutions is helpful, this study has identified the need for a wider cultural shift to ensure the poorest and most vulnerable are properly protected. This goes beyond mere technical improvements to equipment or redirected funding and gets to the very heart of what ‘climate justice’ should be about.”

Reference

Coghlan, C., Muzammil, M., Ingram, J., Vervoort, J., Otto, F. and James, R. (2014) A sign of things to come? Examining four major climate-related disasters, 2010-2013 and their impacts on food security. Oxfam Research Reports, Oxford. Oxfam.

Developing practical strategies for cooperation in the Nile basin

Kevin Wheeler, DPhil candidate at the Environmental Change Institute, recently presented his work on alternative management strategies of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the effects on the distribution of benefits among the Nile Basin countries of Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.

Staff from the Sudan Ministry of Water Resources, Dam Implementation Unit and University of Khartoum learn how to use and develop the Eastern Nile RiverWare model

Staff from the Sudan Ministry of Water Resources, Dam Implementation Unit and University of Khartoum learn how to use and develop the Eastern Nile RiverWare model

He presented both at a workshop on Sustainable Hydropower in the 2014 World Water Week in Stockholm (31 August to 5 September) and was a panellist at the HydroVision International conference in Nashville Tennessee (22-25 July) in a session on ‘Sharing water across borders’.

This work followed from Kevin’s 2013 dissertation research for the MSc in Water Science, Policy and Management, in which he conducted interviews in Cairo Egypt, Khartoum Sudan, and Addis Ababa Ethiopia. He taught RiverWare modelling courses in each country to water ministry officials, university academics, sub-basin organisations and private consultants. Together with these stakeholders, he developed various management scenarios for the operation of the contentious Ethiopian Dam, which is currently being constructed on the Ethiopian-Sudanese border.

The MSc research, which was awarded the Water Conservators’ Prize for Best Dissertation, demonstrated how benefits and costs are distributed under different dam management practices and highlighted the tradeoffs associated with these practices. More importantly, this work empowered stakeholders within the basin by teaching them a practical tool that can be used to facilitate the ongoing negotiations between the countries.

Kevin is continuing this work in his DPhil to examine both theoretical and practical mechanisms of collaboration through dam operations under various hydrologic conditions and the implications on trans-boundary water security across different populations.

More information on issues surrounding the Nile Development can be found at:
http://www.scidev.net/global/energy/multimedia/ethiopia-millennium-dam-science-controversy.html

Vacancy: Postdoctoral Research Associate in Water Resource Systems Modelling for Drought Risk Assessment

School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford

Grade 7: £30,434 – £37,394 p.a.

PREVIOUS APPLICANTS NEED NOT RE-APPLY

The Environmental Change Institute (ECI) is leading a major research project “MaRIUS: Managing the Risks, Impacts and Uncertainties of droughts and water Scarcity” within the UK Droughts on Water Scarcity Programme. MaRIUS is an interdisciplinary project examining the impacts of droughts from economic, social and environmental perspectives.

We are seeking to appoint a Postdoctoral Research Associate who will work with us to develop and demonstrate new water resources systems models for drought risk assessment at catchment and national scales.

The successful candidate will have experience of implementation, and ideally also design and development, of water resources system models. You will have a flair for the development of innovative system modelling solutions. You must have a Doctorate and excellent programming skills, demonstrated through the implementation of system models, and ideally also experience of distributed computing and advanced visualisation. You will have a sound understanding of probabilistic risk analysis, uncertainty analysis and decision analysis and preferably also innovative experience of applying these methodologies in the context of water allocation, hydro-economic and water infrastructure planning decisions. The postholder will be expected to publish their research work in the international academic literature. You will be expected to participate enthusiastically in the multidisciplinary MaRIUS research consortium, including engagement with project stakeholders in government and industry.

This is a fixed-term post for 24 months.

For an informal discussion about the post, or to contact Professor Jim Hall, contact the MaRIUS Project Manager Helen Gavin.

You will be required to upload a CV and supporting statement.

the closing date for applications is 12.00 noon on 13 October 2014. Interviews will be held on 23 October 2014.

For more information and how to apply, please see the job details on the Oxford University Recruitment website.

Vacancy: Postdoctoral Research Assistant (Social Science of Droughts)

School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford

Grade 7:£30,434 p.a.

We are seeking to appoint a Postdoctoral Research Assistant to join the social science team in the interdisciplinary MaRIUS project. The successful candidate will be required to conduct independent and original social science research in collaboration with the social scientists in MaRIUS, focussing on fieldwork in two case study localities in the Thames Basin. This will involve designing, planning, undertaking and analysing individual and collective interviews and oral histories with local residents and stakeholders with regard to perceptions, experiences and knowledge of drought. You will be supporting the staging, recording and analysing of a Competency Group; contributing to production of joint deliverables from the MaRIUS consortium; collaborating in the preparation of research publications and book chapters. You will be expected to publish in highly-ranked, peer-reviewed academic journals and present papers at conferences/meetings.

Applications will have a PhD/DPhil in a social science discipline, relevant to environmental studies, in addition to a demonstrated ability to conduct qualitative research fieldwork (including, interviews, archival and documentary methods; ethnography and oral history fieldwork). Familiarity with relevant Human Geography and Science and Technology Studies theoretical perspectives and an ability to manage your own time effectively and undertake work to agreed timetable are also essential, in addition to excellent communication skills, including the ability to write for publication, present results, and represent the research group at meetings, and the ability to work collaboratively as a member of a research team.

The post is available to start 1 January 2015 and is fixed-term for 18 months.

Applications are to be made online. Please upload your CV and supporting statement as part of your application.

The closing date is 12.00 noon on 6 October 2014, and interviews will be held during week commencing 13 October 2014.

For more information and how to apply, please see the job details on the Oxford University Recruitment website.

Managing coasts under threat from climate change and sea-level rise

Coastal regions under threat from climate change and sea-level rise need to tackle the more immediate threats of human-led and other non-climatic changes, according to a team of international scientists.

The team of 27 scientists from five continents reviewed 24 years of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. They focused on climate change and sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone, and examined ways of how to better manage and cope with climate change. The research team was led by Dr Sally Brown at the University of Southampton and included Andres Payo at the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University.

They found that to better understand climate change and its impacts, scientists need to adopt an integrated approach into how coasts are changing. This involves recognising other causes of change, such as population growth, economic development and changes in biodiversity. Dr Brown emphasised that: “Over the last two and half decades, our scientific understanding of climate change and sea-level rise, and how it will affect coastal zones has greatly increased. We now recognise that we need to analyse all parts of our human and natural environments to understand how climate change will affect the world.”

The scientists also acknowledged that long-term adaptation to climate change can greatly reduce impacts, but further research and evaluation is required to realise the potential of adaptation. “Many parts of the coast can, with forward planning, adapt to sea-level rise, but we need to better understand environments that will struggle to adapt, such as developing countries with large low-lying river deltas sensitive to salinisation, or coral reefs and particularly small, remote islands or poorer communities,” said Dr Brown.

For example, in the Maldives, many small, remote low-lying islands are at risk from climate change and will struggle to adapt. But around the densely populated capital city and airport, adaptation has already occurred as land claim is a common practice in order to relive population pressure. Sea-level rise has already been considered into newly claimed land. Thus in decades to come, potential climate change impacts, such as flooding, will be reduced for this island, benefiting both the local population and economy.

Dr Jochen Hinkel from Global Climate Forum in Germany, who is a co-author of this paper and a Lead Author of the coastal chapter for the 2014 IPCC Assessment Report added: “The IPCC has done a great job in bringing together knowledge on climate change, sea-level rise and is potential impacts but now needs to complement this work with a solution-oriented perspective focusing on overcoming barriers to adaptation, mobilising resources, empowering people and discovering opportunities for strengthening coastal resilience in the context of both climate change as well as existing coastal challenges and other issues.”

This new research, published as a commentary in Nature Climate Change, will help in the understanding of the impacts of climate change and how to reduce impacts via adaptation. Its multi-disciplinary approach could be useful if future IPCC assessment reports are commissioned.

Reference

Brown, S. et al. (2014). Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation. Nature Climate Change, 4: 752–755. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2344