Limits of Predictability: forecasting weather driven natural hazards

Oxford Water Network seminar with Prof Florian Pappenberger, Director of Forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

25 October 2017, 5pm (Wednesday, 3rd week, Michaelmas 2017)

Sir Michael Dummett (formerly Blue Boar) Lecture Theatre, Christ Church

The presentation will set the challenge of forecasting natural hazards within the context of the ECMWF strategy. It will propose how integrated earth system modelling can enhance our forecasting capabilities. The presentation will be set within the context of the European and Global Flood Awareness System and discuss the use of seasonal forecasts within hydrology.

About the speaker

Florian Pappenberger is Director of Forecasts at the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The Forecast Department at ECMWF has a strong user focus and undertakes production of forecasts, forecast evaluation and diagnostics, development of forecast products and applications, software development, catalogue and data services and outreach and training.

Florian has a scientific background in the forecasting of weather driven natural hazards including floods, droughts, windstorms, forest fires and impacts on human health. He has over 10 years of expertise in operational probabilistic forecasting, extreme value statistics and numerical model system development at ECMWF. He was responsible for the development and implementation of the operational centre of the Copernicus Emergency Service – Early Warning Systems (floods).

Florian is the author of over 150 publications, has won several scientific awards. He is an elected fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society and a member of several other professional bodies including HEPEX, British Hydrological Society, EGU, AGU, EMS, AMS. He is on the editorial board of several international scientific journal and regularly advises on international committees including WMO.

This event is part of the Oxford Water Network’s ‘hydroclimatic extremes’ seminar series and will be followed by refreshments at Christ Church.