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“Are weather forecasts still for wimps?” asks Steve Rayner

Professor Steve Rayner questioned the usefulness of long-range weather forecasting as a tool to improve water resource management in a lecture at Flinders University, Australia on 26 November.

The lecture ‘Are weather forecasts still for wimps?’ discussed the historic problems with using long-term weather modelling. However, Professor Rayner suggested that recent improvements in the accuracy of forecasts and the capacity of staff means that this tool holds greater potential for improving water resource management around the world.

Steve Rayner is James Martin Professor of Science and Civilization at Oxford University’s School of Anthropology and Museum Ethnography and Director of the Institute for Science, Innovation and Society.

Read more on the Flinders University blog.

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Oxford University edits a themed issue of Philosophical Transactions A on Water Security, Risk and Society

Professors Jim Hall and David Grey, and Drs Dustin Garrick, Simon Dadson and Rob Hope, have organised and edited a landmark collection of papers, an outcome of the 2012 international conference Water Security, Risk and Society.

The papers demonstrate the growing scale of water security risks. For example, over 45% of the global population is projected to be exposed to water shortages for food production by 2050 (Falkenmark), and South American cities have experienced a doubling of risks associated with extreme rainfall from 1960-2000 (Vorosmarty). Modelling demonstrates that climate hazards are an impediment to economic growth (Brown).

The agenda-setting themed issue includes eight papers from Oxford University authors and engages multiple dimensions of water security, ranging from drinking water, food production and energy to climate risks, transboundary rivers and economic growth. Risk provides the basis for a unifying framework to bridge across multiple disciplines and science-policy divides.

Fifteen papers are organised in three sections to: frame the policy challenges and scientific responses to water security from a risk perspective; assess the evidence about the forces driving water insecurity; and examine responses to water insecurity at multiple scales.

Recognising the need for interdisciplinary science to respond to unprecedented water security challenges, the University of Oxford organised the international conference on Water Security, Risk and Society in April 2012. The conference convened 200 leading thinkers from science, policy and enterprise in 30 countries to take stock of the scientific evidence on water security risk and prioritise future interdisciplinary research.

Taken together, these papers provide strong justification and strategic priorities for policy-driven science in the lead up to new development goals in 2015 and beyond.

 

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Theme Issue ‘Water security, risk and society’ compiled and edited by Jim Hall, David Grey, Dustin Garrick, Simon Dadson and Rob Hope

November 13, 2013; Vol. 371, No. 2002

Preface
Jim Hall, David Grey, Dustin Garrick, Simon Dadson, and Rob Hope

Opinion piece: Water security in one blue planet: twenty-first century policy challenges for science
David Grey, Dustin Garrick, Don Blackmore, Jerson Kelman, Mike Muller, and Claudia Sadoff

Opinion piece: Catalysing sustainable water security: role of science, innovation and partnerships
John Beddington

Opinion piece: The role of technology in achieving water security
Ian Thompson

Research article: Risk-based principles for defining and managing water security (open access)
Jim Hall and Edoardo Borgomeo

Research article: Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America
Charles J. Vörösmarty, Lelys Bravo de Guenni, Wilfred M. Wollheim, Brian Pellerin, David Bjerklie, Manoel Cardoso, Cassiano D’Almeida, Pamela Green, and Lilybeth Colon

Research article: Growing water scarcity in agriculture: future challenge to global water security
Malin Falkenmark

Review article: Water security, global change and land–atmosphere feedbacks
Simon Dadson, Michael Acreman, and Richard Harding

Research article: A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system
Paul Whitehead, Jill Crossman, Bedru Balana, Martyn Futter, Sean Comber, Li Jin, Dimitris Skuras, Andrew Wade, Mike Bowes, and Daniel Read

Research article: Water security in the Canadian Prairies: science and management challenges
Howard Wheater and Patricia Gober

Review article: Domestic water and sanitation as water security: monitoring, concepts and strategy (open access)
David J. Bradley and Jamie K. Bartram

Review article: Risks and responses to universal drinking water security
Robert Hope and Michael Rouse

Research article: The politics of African energy development: Ethiopia’s hydro-agricultural state-building strategy and clashing paradigms of water security
Harry Verhoeven

Research article: The governance dimensions of water security: a review
Karen Bakker and Cynthia Morinville

Research article: Managing hydroclimatic risks in federal rivers: a diagnostic assessment
Dustin Garrick, Lucia De Stefano, Fai Fung, Jamie Pittock, Edella Schlager, Mark New, and Daniel Connell

Research article: Is water security necessary? An empirical analysis of the effects of climate hazards on national-level economic growth
Casey Brown, Robyn Meeks, Yonas Ghile, and Kenneth Hunu

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Managing phosphorus water pollution in an uncertain future

An Oxford-led study suggests that multiple strategies may be needed to manage phosphorus in rivers. Sources of phosphorus pollution vary depending on future changes in rainfall and runoff under different scenarios of climate, land use and water resource management.

Phosphorus causes eutrophication or over-fertilisation of rivers, a serious problem that leads to excessive growth of algae, having a harmful effect on plant and animal life. Managing phosphorus levels in rivers is therefore a major global, national and European concern. Phosphorus can come from diffuse sources such as agricultural fertilisers or point sources such as sewage treatment works.

The study, led by Dr. Jill Crossman and Prof. Paul Whitehead, assesses how the water quality and hydrology of the Thames River system respond to future changes in climate, agricultural land use and water resource allocations. It then evaluates the effectiveness of phosphorus management strategies under these scenarios of future change.

The authors of the study found that the relative contribution of phosphorus from diffuse and point sources vary according to future rainfall and runoff. During high flow periods, agricultural diffuse sources are the main problem, and during low flow periods point sources dominate.

The study suggests that the best approach to phosphorus management may be to adopt multiple strategies for use at different times and locations in order to target the dominant source.

Read the full journal article in Science of the Total Environment

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Special issue of Ecological Economics examines water allocation policy and transaction costs

Dr. Dustin Garrick (School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford Martin School), co-edited a special issue of Ecological Economics on transaction costs and environmental policy, featuring papers on water, carbon, biodiversity and land use issues. Three papers examine water allocation reforms and deliver insights about institutional responses to water allocation tradeoffs.

 

Transaction costs are comparably high for water allocation challenges because property rights are complex and contested. By clarifying conceptual issues and taking stock of empirical evidence and methodological innovations, this collection of papers stimulates more attention to transaction costs in environmental policy design and evaluation and provides recommendations to improve policy choices.

In a comparative study of water markets in the US and Australia, Garrick and colleagues highlight the need for flexibility to adjust water rights and diversion limits in response to policy learning. The study illustrates how the measurement and evaluation of transaction costs can encourage policy choices that improve water market performance and build capacity to adapt to climatic variability and competition.

Visit the special issue Transaction Costs and Environmental Policy online

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Economic Rights and Regulatory Regimes: is there still a ‘right’ to water?

On Tuesday 19 March, a workshop at Oxford University gathered 55 participants from the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the Environment Agency, the National Farmers’ Union, water companies, along with academic experts to discuss the right to water in the light of increasing regulatory intervention.

 

The event was convened by Dr. Bettina Lange, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, Oxford University and Dr. Mark Shepheard, McGill University, in association with the Foundation of Law, Justice and Society and Wolfson College.

The workshop’s theme was inspired by increasing concerns about water scarcity issues in the face of pressures from climate change and reforms to the abstraction licensing system currently being discussed for England and Wales.

The first panel, which invited speakers to ‘rethink’ water rights through stewardship, was opened by Professor Karen Morrow from Swansea University who provided an extensive overview of the common law applicable to water regulation. Morrow highlighted the links that water regulation has not only with property law but also with administrative environmental and human rights law. She introduced the new and more radical approach of granting rights to nature to protect water resources. Dr. Bettina Lange and Dr. Mark Shepheard shared their findings from empirical socio-legal research which mapped how farmers think about a right to water and identified key factors that shape such conceptions.

Henry Leveson-Gower, Head of Defra’s Future Water Resource Management Project, opened the second panel which explored the use of market mechanisms for promoting water stewardship. He explained the need for a reform of the current water abstraction licensing system, highlighting that the current system is not flexible enough to respond to alternating floods and droughts due to climate change. Leveson-Gower urged the need for more efficient use of water resources and outlined three economic incentive-based options currently being considered by the government. 

Alice Piure, Strategy & Policy Analyst at Anglian Water, presented interesting findings from a research project that explored the use of various types of water trading and their contribution to promoting water stewardship. Finally, Jon Stern from City University London discussed market-based approaches to dealing with periodic water scarcity, in particular the sale of raw water from one region to another.

The third panel offered academic perspectives on state regulatory approaches to water stewardship. Donald McGillivray of Sussex University gave a historical overview of the approach taken by the common law to regulate water stewardship. He argued that the current regulation gives mixed legal messages about water rights and sustainability as there is no real clarity regarding the regulatory goals.

Prof. Bill Howarth of Kent University pointed to the significant advances that have been made in regulation to anticipate and manage the risks of unpredictable events such as floods or droughts, but argued that much more must be done to effectively enhance ‘water security’.  Dr. Sarah Hendry from Dundee University closed the session with some contrasting insights from Scottish water regulation.

The final panel involved a round-table discussion regarding the future research agenda in water stewardship. Various themes were raised, including the challenge of reconciling potentially different competing regulatory goals, specifically ‘water security’ and ‘food security’, as well as challenges to and opportunities for developing cross-disciplinary perspectives on water stewardship.

By Sebastián Castro, DPhil Student, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, Faculty of Law, University of Oxford.

View workshop presentations and podcasts

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More severe and widespread UK droughts expected with climate change

UK droughts are projected to be more severe and affect larger areas of the country over the next 100 years, according to a new study by Muhammad Rahiz and Prof. Mark New published in the journal Water Resources Management.

The team made a detailed analysis of regional climate data from the Met Office’s Hadley Centre to investigate future drought trends. “Both drought intensity and the spatial extent of droughts in the UK are projected by these climate models to increase into the future”, said Professor Mark New, Professor of Climate Science at the School of Geography and Environment and co-author of the study.

The findings of the study could have implications for the way water is managed, particularly in the South East, one of the most vulnerable regions. “If you have small, localised droughts, that’s not so important from a water management point of view, because most utilities can move water in from another place,” said Professor New. “But if a drought affects a whole region like the South East of England, then you’ve got a more significant problem.”

Read the full article on the Natural Environment Research Council website

Reference

Rahiz, M. and New, M. (2013) 21st Century drought scenarios for the UK. Water Resources Management, 27(4): 1039-1061.

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Collaboration with Chinese Government and WWF identifies best practice for drought management

Paul Sayers is working with the Chinese Government and WWF to identify world best practice for risk-based drought planning and management. He will present findings at the Asian Water Week 2013 to be held on 13-15 March in Manila, Phillipines.

The Chinese Government has committed significant resources to address water resource management issues across the country. Drought is one particular challenge, which occurs regularly in China and often has very significant social, economic and environmental consequences.

As climate change increases uncertainty about future rainfall patterns, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of droughts, it is important that sophisticated drought planning and management is mainstreamed in China.

Oxford’s Paul Sayers is part of an on-going collaboration between WWF and the Chinese Government’s General Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Planning (GIWP), aimed at synthesising lessons from international experiences in this field and identifying world best practice. This information will be used to support GIWP in its role as key planning agency under the Ministry of Water Resources. The results will also contribute to WWF’s freshwater work globally.

In March, Sayers will meet with WWF, GIWP and the Asian Development Bank in Manila to discuss the development of strategic drought planning guidance. This will include the principles, methods and approaches for undertaking risk-based drought planning and management as a means of supporting the overarching goals of the river basin plan and other related management objectives. Sayers will also present results at the Asian Water Week 2013.

This latest work continues a four year long collaboration on water-related issues, with earlier projects focusing on river basin management, water allocation and strategic flood risk management.

Paul Sayers is a Senior Visiting Fellow at the School of Geography and the Environment.

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Oxford contributes to World Bank report on climate change adaptation in Arab countries

Dr Rachael McDonnell provided input to a comprehensive World Bank report ‘Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries’, which was launched at the COP 18 climate change conference in Doha, Qatar. The report highlights the acute consequences of climate change in the Arab world and calls for urgent actions to reduce vulnerability.

McDonnell was lead author for the chapter ‘Agriculture, rural livelihoods, and food security are stressed in a changing climate’ and contributed to two further chapters on ‘Climate change contributes to water scarcity’, and ‘Implement policy responses to increase climate resilience’.

Challenges faced in the Arab world include worsening water scarcity, very low and variable rainfall, and excessive exposure to extreme events such as droughts and desertification. The report highlights the need for immediate responses to avert the anticipated consequences of rising food and water insecurity.

“Climate change is a reality for people in Arab countries,” said Inger Andersen, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa region. “It affects everyone – especially the poor who are least able to adapt – and as the climate becomes ever more extreme, so will its impacts on people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. The time to take actions at both the national and regional level in order to increase climate resilience is now.”

Through coordinated actions at multiple levels, the report concludes that the Arab world can successful adapt and adjust to the challenges of a changing climate, as it has done for centuries.

See the World Bank webpage for the full report, story highlights, press release, video blog, and other resources.

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Dryland agriculture a major issue for climate change

People living in rural communities in the world’s driest areas are hit hardest by climate change impacts, according to the report from an International Conference on Food Security in the Drylands. Many of the most effective climate change interventions will be rooted in agriculture, which these communities depend on for their livelihoods.

Oxford University’s Professor Mike Edmunds and Dr Rachael McDonnell were among the invited speakers at the Qatar National Food Security Program conference which was held in Doha, Qatar on 14-15 November 2012, under the auspices of the Heir Apparent, His Highness, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.

Mike Edmunds’ paper addressed water security in low rainfall areas, emphasising the need to base sustainable development policy on renewable water resources (especially groundwater). He urged people to consider the advantages of locally sourced water as a basis for sustainable rural development. Rachael McDonnell examined the many new science and policy advances being made in using saline and treated wastewater to meet food security challenges in drylands.

The report calls for action to help rural communities produce food and secure their livelihoods while faced with land degradation, water scarcity and unpreditable weather patterns. Many solutions are available now, such as crop diversification, efficient water management, ‘climate smart’ technologies and conservation agriculture. Targeted investment backed up with sound policies are urgently needed to ensure that these opportunities are seized.

The conference brought together over 400 people to discuss the challenges and opportunities for building food security and mitigating climate change in drylands. These included ministers and senior government officials, policymakers, researchers, development practitioners and representatives of international and regional organisations, farmers’ unions, private and public financial institutions, and private agri-business enterprises.

Read the full conference report.

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The hidden resource: groundwater’s role in achieving water security

Groundwater is critical to global water security. This was the clear message Professor Richard Taylor delivered at a seminar in Oxford on 13 November.

Knowledge gaps in groundwater science

Water stored underground provides around 36% of the world’s domestic supplies, and 42% of all irrigation water. Use of groundwater could also prove a useful adaptation to climate variability and change, Taylor said.

Despite its strategic importance, our understanding of the magnitude of groundwater resources across the world is strikingly poor. A groundbreaking 2012 study by Taylor and colleagues showed that the volume of groundwater in Africa is 10-100 times greater than water found above the surface. Far greater investment in groundwater monitoring and science is needed, if this resource is to be harnessed to achieve water security.

Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge

While knowledge on the current state of groundwater is patchy, still less is known about how these resources will change into the future. It is unclear how the trend towards more frequent and heavy rainfall events expected as global temperature rises will impact groundwater recharge.

The 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report referred to just one study on the impact of climate change on groundwater, which projected a dramatic 70% reduction in groundwater recharge in some parts of Brazil and Africa. The model used assumed that more intensive rainfall would more often exceed the capacity for water to infiltrate soils.

However, Taylor provided stark evidence to the contrary, suggesting that more heavy rainfall events may in fact lead to greater groundwater recharge. This more optimistic outlook was based on a study of 55 years of observational data of rainfall and groundwater levels in semi-arid Tanzania.

The records from Tanzania show that recharge is closely associated with extreme seasonal rainfall, with only seven rainfall events during the 55 years accounting for 80% of the recharge. Increased use of groundwater could therefore prove a useful adaptation to climate variability and change, suggested Taylor.

Sustainability of groundwater use

In Bangladesh, China and India, tapping into groundwater reserves for irrigation has enabled these countries to dramatically increase food production to meet the needs of their expanding populations.

However, groundwater is being used faster than it can be replenished in some parts of the world, warned Taylor, including north-west India, the California Central Valley, and the North China Plain. Indirect impacts on groundwater, for example due to irrigation demand, can outweigh any direct impacts of climate change on recharge rates. The sustainability of resources therefore remains a key concern.

Groundwater depletion is not always inevitable and in some cases, groundwater abstraction can actually lead to greater recharge. Taylor’s research shows that in parts of the Bengal Basin in Bangladesh, water pumped out of the ground is almost completely replenished by the yearly monsoon. The subsurface effectively acts as a storage reservoir, with pumping during the dry season making space for greater storage and recharge during rainy periods.

Whether abstraction leads to groundwater depletion or increased recharge depends on the geology and soils, with sandy soils being favourable to recharge in the Bangladesh case.

The inadequacy of global water scarcity metrics

Current metrics of freshwater availability are based solely on river flows. According to Taylor, these measures are fundamentally flawed as they ignore groundwater, and therefore warp perceptions of water security.

Water scarcity metrics are also unhelpful when it comes to planning for adaptation to climate change. Using water more efficiently, and increasing storage, can both help buffer increasing varibility in flows. “We need to think of storage more holistically”, said Taylor. This means considering not only constructed storage such as reservoirs, but also the water stored naturally beneath the Earth’s surface.

This blog is based on a talk given by Richard Taylor, Professor of Hydrogeology at University College London, as part of the Water Security, Growth and Development seminar series. Download the presentation slides

 

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